Can't believe my eyes, it has been 2 years since I last wrote here. Anyway, the question I am asking myself now, is how will 2021 be. The outlook of 2021 is dependent on the many factors I see as below
- New US President, Biden. I would expect the trade war to go on, with Biden working better with his colleagues from the European bloc and continue to put pressure on China. I don't think China will bow down and they will continue to defend and negotiate to what China thinks is OK and acceptable for them. China doesn't want to or need to be dependent, and remember, before they are open for the economic growth, they were happy and self sufficient already anyway.
- Covid, the promise of vaccine seems to be very positive, many vaccine news all with 90% success seems to be flooding the market. The question I may have is how long does it reaches the mass market and do we know the long term effects of this drugs? Well we have time to study the short term, but how about the longer term effect. I think we are concerned about saving life now then that, but it is still an important question that needs to be addressed. I'll be careful whether to take it or not, if I am not directly exposed on a frequent basis.
- Malaysia economy, we just signed a trade deal with China and 13 more countries. That sounds good, but the local SME has been much affected with the shut down of our country due to MCO. Industry such as hospitality and tourism has been much affected. I think the eateries and many other small businesses are very much affected as well. Some sources says within the past 6 months already 50000 SME has closed shop. We need SME as driver of growth and I think our GDP and employment will be affected next year
- New normal - WFH, masks anywhere and everything order online may be how we are going to be moving forward. Everyone will be online and we just might have fast forward the technology use by 5 years or more. Mobile payment will be the thing to stay now, since we have garnered a lot of people's trust in this devices rather than money.
- I have followed the study of Covid waves since March and I might have shared about the waves concept then, every country in their own way of lockdown and freedom has their way of controlling, therefore will have their own Covid waves. Some country are at 2nd wave and some are at 3rd wave. Make no mistake though, the next wave will be worse then the one before, and I have seen the evidences happening in other country. How each country balance this delicate between economy and the wave, and how they enforce the rules and physical distancing determine how many more cases/death will be, again until the vaccine is out.
2021 What I think it will be
- Cautious spending by the majority, economy tries to open up again
- Good time to buy property as developer is looking for cash
- Glove will remain to be a resilient stock due to its demand though the stock price will depends on a lot of factors since everyone is jumping on the bandwagon.
- Government instability might hinder for any major IPO or large development. Until it is decided who can lead with majority, corporation may avoid large projects.
- Before the vaccine is out for the masses, the Covid wave will continue. Every country has different waves and Malaysia is experiencing the 2nd wave now.
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